2025 Presidential Agenda: Major Challenges Await the Next U.S. Leader

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the stakes are higher than ever. Whether the next occupant of the White House is former President Donald Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris, the challenges they will face in 2025 are both daunting and numerous. From deciding the fate of tax cuts to addressing global conflicts, the next president’s decisions will significantly impact American lives and the country’s position on the global stage.

The Looming Expiration of the Trump Tax Cuts

One of the most critical issues awaiting the next president is the decision on whether to extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts. These tax cuts, formally known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduced significant changes to the federal tax code. While businesses and the wealthiest Americans benefited most from these cuts, the impact on average citizens has been mixed. For some, the tax cuts led to minimal changes or even an increase in taxes owed to the federal government.

The expiration of these tax provisions at the end of 2025 will have far-reaching consequences. Key elements, such as the lowered tax rates and the doubled standard deduction, will revert to previous levels. Additionally, the Child Tax Credit, which currently stands at $2,000 per child, will be reduced to $1,000 per child. These changes could drastically affect the financial landscape for many American families.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that extending the individual tax provisions would reduce federal tax revenue by approximately $2 trillion over the next decade. The impact of extending the business tax provisions is similarly significant, with an estimated reduction in federal revenue of $953 billion over the same period. The enormity of these figures means that the decision on the tax cuts will influence what other policy initiatives the next president can pursue. Programs related to Social Security, Medicare, the Child Tax Credit, and other social safety nets could be affected by the available budgetary resources.

David Super, a Georgetown Law professor specializing in legislation and policy, has emphasized the centrality of the tax cuts to the next administration’s agenda. He suggests that the decision on the tax cuts will determine the feasibility of other policy proposals. The next president may seek to retool the tax package to incorporate popular elements, such as expanding the Child Tax Credit, but these efforts will be constrained by the broader fiscal implications of the tax cuts’ extension or expiration.

Healthcare Subsidies and the Future of Obamacare

Another major issue awaiting the next president is the impending expiration of enhanced subsidies for health insurance coverage purchased through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces. These subsidies, which were increased by Congress in 2021, have made healthcare more affordable for millions of Americans. As of 2024, 11.1 million out of the 21.4 million Americans enrolled in ACA plans receive these increased subsidies.

However, these enhanced subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2025. Without intervention, millions of Americans could face dramatic increases in their health insurance premiums, with some premiums potentially doubling. The CBO projects that a permanent extension of these subsidies would cost $335 billion over the next ten years.

The next president will need to decide whether to push for an extension of these subsidies or let them expire, leading to a potential affordability crisis for many Americans. If the subsidies are not extended, some individuals may choose to forgo health insurance altogether, which could have serious consequences for their health and financial stability.

Navigating Government Funding and the Debt Ceiling

The issue of government funding and the national debt ceiling is another critical challenge that the next president will likely face early in their term. Congress has struggled to pass the necessary spending bills on time in recent years, leading to frequent reliance on stop-gap measures to keep the government operating. The fiscal year deadline is September 30, but lawmakers are expected to pass temporary funding measures that extend government operations until December 2024. After that, another short-term extension may be needed to avoid a government shutdown in early 2025.

A government shutdown can have widespread effects, including the closure of national parks, the furlough of millions of federal workers, and the suspension of essential services such as food safety inspections and passport processing. The debt ceiling, which determines the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow, is another looming issue. Raising the debt ceiling has become a politically charged process, often used as a bargaining chip by lawmakers to push for fiscal concessions.

If the debt ceiling is not raised in a timely manner, the U.S. government could face a default on its obligations, which would have severe repercussions for the global economy. The next president will need to work closely with Congress to navigate these complex fiscal challenges and prevent a potentially catastrophic shutdown or default.

Will Dunham, a former top policy aide to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has pointed out that the next administration is likely to face a “springtime government funding showdown.” The timing of this showdown could coincide with the deadline to raise the debt ceiling, making it a critical early test of the next president’s ability to govern effectively.

International Relations: The Wars in Ukraine and Gaza

On the international front, the next president will inherit ongoing conflicts that will require careful navigation. Military aid to Ukraine, which has been a bipartisan effort thus far, could face new challenges depending on the composition of the Senate. With Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stepping down in December 2024, the Republican leadership in the Senate could become more aligned with Trump’s foreign policy views, particularly if Republicans gain control of the chamber.

The conflict in Gaza, where Israeli forces are engaged in operations against Hamas, presents another significant challenge. The next president’s approach to the conflict will be shaped by their relationship with key international leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump has a longstanding relationship with Netanyahu, which could influence his administration’s policies towards Israel and Palestine. In contrast, Harris may face pressure from within her party to take a more balanced approach, particularly from progressive activists who are critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

The decisions the next president makes regarding these conflicts will have far-reaching implications for U.S. foreign policy and its relationships with key allies and adversaries.

Supreme Court Appointments and the Future of American Jurisprudence

The next president could also have the opportunity to reshape the U.S. Supreme Court significantly. Several justices are nearing retirement age, and their potential departures could alter the balance of the Court for decades to come. At 76, Justice Clarence Thomas is the oldest member of the Court, followed closely by Justice Samuel Alito, who is 74. Both are considered among the most conservative justices on the bench.

If Trump wins the presidency, it is likely that both Thomas and Alito would consider retiring, allowing Trump to appoint younger conservative justices who could maintain or even strengthen the Court’s conservative majority. On the other hand, if Harris wins, these justices may choose to remain on the bench, hoping to avoid being replaced by more liberal appointees.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who is 70 and has had recent health issues, might consider retirement if Harris wins, giving the vice president the opportunity to appoint a more progressive justice. The potential for up to three Supreme Court appointments in the next presidential term underscores the importance of the 2024 election. The next president’s appointments could influence the Court’s decisions on key issues such as abortion rights, same-sex marriage, and gun control for generations.

Carolyn Shapiro, a law professor at Chicago-Kent College of Law, has noted that justices often consider the party of the sitting president when deciding whether to retire. The prospect of shaping the Court’s future could be a significant factor for voters in the upcoming election.

Immigration Policy: A Divisive Issue

Immigration remains one of the most contentious issues in American politics, and the next president will need to address it head-on. Border crossings have declined in recent months, but both Trump and Harris have proposed significant changes to immigration policy.

Trump has advocated for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, a policy that could have widespread legal and economic implications. His approach to immigration enforcement would likely depend on the political makeup of Congress, particularly whether Republicans control both the House and the Senate.

Harris, on the other hand, has expressed support for a bipartisan border security bill that was proposed earlier in 2024. This bill, which Trump opposed, sought to expand detention capacity and tighten asylum qualifications while also increasing the number of green-card-eligible visas. However, the bill faced significant opposition and is unlikely to be revived without substantial changes.

Will Dunham has suggested that immigration policy is another area where significant movement is unlikely without a clear deadline or a specific crisis to address. The political polarization surrounding immigration means that any legislative action will require careful negotiation and compromise.

Conclusion: A Crucial Crossroads for America

As the 2024 presidential election draws near, the challenges awaiting the next president are immense. From deciding the fate of the Trump tax cuts to navigating international conflicts and potential Supreme Court appointments, the decisions made in the first months of 2025 will shape the future of the United States for years to come. The outcome of the election will not only determine who occupies the White House but also influence the direction of the country on issues that matter deeply to all Americans.